The beginning of a new space race, the end of the Westphalian Syste

“I think we are at the dawn of a new era of space exploration”- Elon Musk

For years now (370 to be exact) the Westphalian system has become the main paradigm of the study of international relations. Westphalia has entailed a revolutionary shift on the theoretical development of international relations and its implications have proven to be long-lasting. The fact that the international arena is dominated solely by States has been for many centuries upheld as an almost undeniable truth of the Westphalian system, however, as time and context change so does the consensus on this matter.

Traditionally, the theoretical framework upon which the supremacy of role of the State in the international order was built has always been Realism. Conversely, Liberal theories continuously advocate to acknowledge the increasingly important role of non-state actors within the global order. One of the main arguments put forward by liberals is that with globalization and the creation of supranational organizations there is room for more actors which can affect the outcomes of international relations. For instance, the United Nations (UN) or even private corporations are said to be already more powerful actors than many nation-states. 

The fact that a lot power is being accumulated in private hands is already undeniable. Nevertheless, the following questions should be made; does this matter put at risk the supremacy of States in the international order? Is this the end of the Westphalian system as we know it? In order to delve into these issues, this essay intends to explore one contemporary and unique event; the development of the private space race. The essay will briefly analyse how through technological, economic and military capabilities that developing a space race entails, private entities will sooner or later become as powerful as States, obtaining therefore a say in international outcomes. At the end of the day, the development of a new space race in the hands of private entities further demonstrates that the Westphalian system is becoming archaic.

It is fair to say that the original space race first saw the light thanks to Realism. In the 1950 during the Cold War two great powers, the USA and the USSR, were militarily, politically and ideologically confronted. The international order became primarily bipolar where these two actors operated within their sphere of influence. Given this context, the two powers were in constant competition with each other. At first this competition was purely militarily and diplomatically oriented, soonly the focus shifted towards the space; whoever could reach it first would outstandingly demonstrate technological superiority over the other, positioning itself as the strongest and most efficient power. The space race was therefore used by the USA and the USSR as display of power to guarantee their supremacy and safety. This event further reinforces the role of States as Westphalian entities; in an anarchic world they are the sole actors suitable for competition. The space race was conceived as a matter of States to guarantee their security, private actors were not to have any sort of influence. 

Even though the Cold War was over and the historical context changed, the space race continued to exist and to expand to other countries, among them we find Canada, China, India and Europe through the European Space Agency. This did, however, not pose a problem neither a threat to the Westphalian system. In fact, competition in some sense still remained a main driver of space exploration. Three reasons can be identified behind the development of the space race; economic and technological, military and lastly but most importantly the sense of national pride and achievement. It is possible to see therefore that the Westphalian system was in a way perpetuated by this competition; States as the main actors seeking to position themselves first in an unsafe anarchic world in order to guarantee or advance their position.

Nevertheless, it is possible to see that drastic changes have taken place during the last decade concerning the space race. Some have even coined the following term; “Space Race 2.0”. These changes have been generated by the emergence of private entities which possess the resources and the capabilities to join the space race and be in direct competition against other States. In recent years the space race has been shaped mostly by technological “startups”; SpaceX, Blue Origin, Virgin Galactic and Boeing to name a few. SpaceX joined the race in 2012, when they launched a spacecraft to the International Space Station (ISS). In 2015 they successfully launched and landed their own rocket. A month before, Blue Origin completed a vertical rocket landing without major incidencies. Later in 2016, they became the first entity to be able to launch and land a previously used rocket, something that not even the NASA was able to achieve. Additionally, Virgin Galactic aims to become the first commercial spaceline planning on organizing sub-orbital trips around the Earth accessible for civilians as early as in 2020. It is also worth noting that earlier this year SpaceX launched the most powerful rocket known so far; the Falcon Heavy and plans to land on Mars in 2023.

What all these actors have in common is that their main aim and vision is to become pioneers in commercial space exploration. In order words, they are mostly profit oriented. This for the first time changes the main driver and implications of space race. It is not a competition exclusively designed for States to guarantee their supremacy over the others anymore, the new space race concerns private actors competing to gain monopoly over the industry of space exploration which will ultimately bring them economic profit. This last notion has especial liberal connotations; because of globalization and free trade private entities have become so powerful that they already surpass the capabilities of many States, these private entities do not compete based on security but on the free market.

Does this imply the decay of the Westphalian system? Not completely, at least in the short-run. While it is true that Westphalian entities are obliged to share their “playing room” with other actors, they have still considerable power and there are still reasons to believe that the space race can continue to be used as a Westphalian tool. For instance, SpaceX as well as Boeing are subcontractors of NASA and bureaucratically as well as financially wise the former depend on the latter. Additionally, NASA develops financing programs and competitions, like the Centennial Challenges Program, in order to attract and recruit top talent in specific areas of space innovations. Through programs, fundations and prizes of up to $26 million, NASA finances private projects which they can ultimately benefit from. Under the presidency of Obama, high support was given to space programs development through the private industry. In fact, Obama chaired the White House Frontiers Conference where space exploration and development was highly discussed within the context of the private industry. Private space exploration is moreover considered by the USA government as a good way to reduce costs and drive higher innovation and efficiency.

It is possible to observe that the healthy attitude on behalf of the American government towards the development of the private space industry is aligning these private projects towards their own interests. It is further seen by the fact that not a single one of these entities is not collaborating with NASA, ultimately showing who really has the last say. In this sense, the space race is still indirectly State controlled hence still portraying the technological advancements and capabilities of a State and further feeding its own national pride. Thus the Westphalian connotations behind the space race are nearly intact.

There is however another question to be answered; what is to be expected in the long run? With or without State support, private entities will undoubtedly continue to accumulate power, they are already surpassing the capabilities of State-based space projects like India and China. The future dynamics of the Westphalian system are increasingly threatened by the growing presence of powerful non-state actors in the new space race. Even if in current times the private players in the space race are still subject to State limitations, it is important to point out that NASA is also increasingly dependent on the technological innovations of these tech-startups. In fact, companies like SpaceX have been described as the “savior of Nasa and of the future of Space Exploration”. 

In conclusion, even if present Westphalian dynamics are not being necessarily threatened by the private space race, the increasing power of private actors leaves a very uncertain scenario concerning how Westphalia will survive in the future. This trend towards the accumulation of technological and military capabilities in hands of non-state actors indicates that the Westphalian system and the supremacy of States within the international order might be becoming gradually obsolete. Even if some States like the US directs its efforts towards capturing the private sector under loans and financial programs, the fact that a dependency to these companies is being created can eventually fireback the American government. While dependency is increasingly becoming a factor to bear in mind, any solid conclusion at this early stage of private space exploration would be highly speculative. While the weakening of the Westphalian system can be intuited, the future is still very uncertain.

Bibliography

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• Houser, Kristin “Private Companies, Not Governments, Are Shaping the Future of Space Explorations”, Futurism, June 2017.
• Thompson, Lorens What NASA Risks By Betting On Elon Musk's SpaceX” Forbes, May 2011.
• Wattles, Jackie “Branson! Musk! Bezos! The billionaire space race throwdown”, CNN, April 2017.